Every other module reads a number off the venue and applies a rule. This one asks gpt-5.6-luna what a question actually resolves at, without showing it the price, and bets only when the answer and the market disagree by 20% or more. Most of the time they agree, and agreement is not a trade — so most of this page is opinions the module formed and did not act on.
No market has been priced by the model yet. Every new binary market gets an estimate; this fills as they arrive.
Every market the model priced, with the argument it gave — including the ones it argued itself out of. A multi-choice market is priced one answer at a time and each answer is its own row, named after the question. On this module the reasoning is the strategy, so a decline without it is the one decline nobody can check.
| market | price | model | gap | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing priced yet. | ||||
Nothing judged yet.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-27 08:18 | v63-twin | Which party will win the Rosemont—La Petite Patrie by-election? :: New Democratic Party | NO 100 | open +5 | model 0.07; edge -0.26; luna-medium price-blind says 0.07 vs answer 0.33 (edge -0.26 >= 0.1): Despite a 5-for-5 NDP riding history, Boulerice’s departure likely removes a large personal vote and current proxy modeling strongly favors the Liberals, so I estimate only a 7% NDP win probability. |
| 08-27 08:18 | v63-twin | Which party will win the Rosemont—La Petite Patrie by-election? :: Liberal Party | NO 97 | open -2 | model 0.20; edge -0.26; luna-medium price-blind says 0.20 vs answer 0.46 (edge -0.26 >= 0.1): The Liberals start close behind the NDP but lose the incumbent’s personal advantage and face credible NDP and Bloc candidates in a historically NDP-leaning riding. |
| 08-27 08:18 | v63-twin | Which party will win the Rosemont—La Petite Patrie by-election? :: Bloc Québécois | NO 100 | open +2 | model 0.04; edge -0.11; luna-medium price-blind says 0.04 vs answer 0.15 (edge -0.11 >= 0.1): The Bloc has a strong historical presence but is currently third, while the incumbent’s departure appears to favor the Liberals and available by-election modeling gives the Bloc roughly 4%. |
3 trades, 297 staked, realised +0, open +22 if held / +5 if sold.
In the traces on hand the model priced 0
answers across 0 markets and the module acted on
0 of them (0%). The journal holds
3 trades for 297 mana.
An estimate the model declines to give is treated as no opinion and never
as a cheap one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 18:16Z.