Every other module reads a number off the venue and applies a rule. This one asks gpt-5.6-luna what a question actually resolves at, without showing it the price, and bets only when the answer and the market disagree by 20% or more. Most of the time they agree, and agreement is not a trade — so most of this page is opinions the module formed and did not act on.
No market has been priced by the model yet. Every new binary market gets an estimate; this fills as they arrive.
Every market the model priced, with the argument it gave — including the ones it argued itself out of. A multi-choice market is priced one answer at a time and each answer is its own row, named after the question. On this module the reasoning is the strategy, so a decline without it is the one decline nobody can check.
| market | price | model | gap | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing priced yet. | ||||
Nothing judged yet.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-27 08:35 | v63 | Will Touhou creator Ota Junya (ZUN) attend a convention in the United States before 2030? | NO 25 | open -5 | model 0.27; edge -0.23; luna-medium price-blind says 0.27 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.23 >= 0.2): Base rate: 2 verified US convention appearances (2013–2016) over roughly 30 years, about 6.7% annually; despite scheduled TouhouFest 2027 and Anime Expo 2027, his 2026 TouhouFest participation was only prerecorded, so I estimate 2 |
1 trade, 25 staked, realised +0, open -3 if held / -5 if sold.
In the traces on hand the model priced 0
answers across 0 markets and the module acted on
0 of them (0%). The journal holds
1 trades for 25 mana.
An estimate the model declines to give is treated as no opinion and never
as a cheap one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 17:56Z.