Every other module reads a number off the venue and applies a rule. This one asks gpt-5.6-luna what a question actually resolves at, without showing it the price, and bets only when the answer and the market disagree by 20% or more. Most of the time they agree, and agreement is not a trade — so most of this page is opinions the module formed and did not act on.
No market has been priced by the model yet. Every new binary market gets an estimate; this fills as they arrive.
Every market the model priced, with the argument it gave — including the ones it argued itself out of. A multi-choice market is priced one answer at a time and each answer is its own row, named after the question. On this module the reasoning is the strategy, so a decline without it is the one decline nobody can check.
| market | price | model | gap | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing priced yet. | ||||
Nothing judged yet.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-27 07:23 | v62-twin | Which party will win the Rosemont—La Petite Patrie by-election? :: New Democratic Party | NO 100 | open +5 | model 0.12; edge -0.21; luna-medium price-blind says 0.12 vs answer 0.33 (edge -0.21 >= 0.1): Despite a 5-for-5 local NDP history, Boulerice’s personal vote and incumbency are removed, while the available by-election forecast strongly favors the Liberals. |
| 08-27 07:23 | v62-twin | Which party will win the Rosemont—La Petite Patrie by-election? :: Liberal Party | YES 41 | open +1 | model 0.60; edge +0.14; luna-medium price-blind says 0.60 vs answer 0.46 (edge +0.14 >= 0.1): Base rate: the NDP won this riding in 5/5 federal elections since 2011, but Boulerice’s departure removes a major personal-vote advantage; the 2025 NDP-Liberal margin was 9.4 points, while forecasts diverge sharply (Vote-Scope 94% |
| 08-27 07:23 | v62-twin | Which party will win the Rosemont—La Petite Patrie by-election? :: Bloc Québécois | NO 100 | open +2 | model 0.04; edge -0.11; luna-medium price-blind says 0.04 vs answer 0.15 (edge -0.11 >= 0.1): Base rate: the Bloc won 3 of the riding’s 8 elections from 2004–2025 but 0 of the last 5; rules are clear, and the 2025 result was NDP 41.0%, Liberal 31.6%, Bloc 18.3% ([Elections Canada](https://www.elections.ca/Scripts/vis/PastR |
3 trades, 241 staked, realised +0, open +18 if held / +9 if sold.
In the traces on hand the model priced 0
answers across 0 markets and the module acted on
0 of them (0%). The journal holds
3 trades for 241 mana.
An estimate the model declines to give is treated as no opinion and never
as a cheap one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 18:16Z.