Every other module reads a number off the venue and applies a rule. This one asks gpt-5.6-luna what a question actually resolves at, without showing it the price, and bets only when the answer and the market disagree by 20% or more. Most of the time they agree, and agreement is not a trade — so most of this page is opinions the module formed and did not act on.
No market has been priced by the model yet. Every new binary market gets an estimate; this fills as they arrive.
Every market the model priced, with the argument it gave — including the ones it argued itself out of. A multi-choice market is priced one answer at a time and each answer is its own row, named after the question. On this module the reasoning is the strategy, so a decline without it is the one decline nobody can check.
| market | price | model | gap | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing priced yet. | ||||
Nothing judged yet.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-26 12:51 | v57-twin | Who will be the Democratic nominee, and will they win the 2028 presidential election? :: Someone else is the D | YES 8 | open +4 | model 0.17; edge +0.13; luna-medium price-blind says 0.17 vs answer 0.04 (edge +0.13 >= 0.1): Using the 52.6% historical Democratic-loss rate, an estimated 25–30% chance that the nominee is outside the unprovided option list, and a roughly 55–60% loss probability for that nominee, I estimate about 17%, with the missing opt |
| 08-26 12:36 | v57-twin | ✨ Improve my life? ✨ [ADD OPTIONS] :: Change nothing | NO 100 | cancelled | model 0.03; edge -0.47; luna-medium price-blind says 0.03 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.47 >= 0.3): Base rate ~10% for deliberate inaction producing a judged significant life improvement over long horizons; “Change nothing” is readily implementable but attribution is weak under the rules, no scheduled event mechanically bears on |
2 trades, 108 staked, realised +0, open +12 if held / +4 if sold.
In the traces on hand the model priced 0
answers across 0 markets and the module acted on
0 of them (0%). The journal holds
2 trades for 108 mana.
An estimate the model declines to give is treated as no opinion and never
as a cheap one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 18:16Z.