Every other module reads a number off the venue and applies a rule. This one asks gpt-5.6-luna what a question actually resolves at, without showing it the price, and bets only when the answer and the market disagree by 20% or more. Most of the time they agree, and agreement is not a trade — so most of this page is opinions the module formed and did not act on.
No market has been priced by the model yet. Every new binary market gets an estimate; this fills as they arrive.
Every market the model priced, with the argument it gave — including the ones it argued itself out of. A multi-choice market is priced one answer at a time and each answer is its own row, named after the question. On this module the reasoning is the strategy, so a decline without it is the one decline nobody can check.
| market | price | model | gap | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing priced yet. | ||||
Nothing judged yet.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-26 12:10 | v56-twin | Will the US threaten to attack Canada before 2027? | NO 66 | open +50 | model 0.04; edge -0.72; luna-medium price-blind says 0.04 vs market 0.76 (edge -0.72 >= 0.2): The historical base rate is effectively zero, but the active U.S.-Canada trade war and upcoming tariff and electoral catalysts modestly raise the chance of a qualifying military threat before 2027. |
| 08-26 12:09 | v56-twin | 2026 NCAAF: Which team will win the Mountain West Conference Championship? :: North Dakota State Bison | NO 40 | open -6 | model 0.01; edge -0.17; luna-medium price-blind says 0.01 vs answer 0.18 (edge -0.17 >= 0.1): Base rate is 10% in a 10-team field, but NDSU is officially ineligible for the 2026 MW Championship Game under current rules ([NDSU FAQ](https://gobison.com/sports/2026/2/9/fbs-frequently-asked-questions)); the resolver is the off |
| 08-26 12:09 | v56-twin | 2026 NCAAF: Which team will win the Mountain West Conference Championship? :: New Mexico Lobos | YES 4 | open +4 | model 0.23; edge +0.12; luna-medium price-blind says 0.23 vs answer 0.11 (edge +0.12 >= 0.1): New Mexico is a market co-favorite with a plausible championship-game path, but its historical 0-for-13 title-game record and a highly competitive 10-team field keep the estimate near 23%. |
3 trades, 110 staked, realised +0, open +75 if held / +49 if sold.
In the traces on hand the model priced 0
answers across 0 markets and the module acted on
0 of them (0%). The journal holds
3 trades for 110 mana.
An estimate the model declines to give is treated as no opinion and never
as a cheap one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 18:16Z.