Every other module reads a number off the venue and applies a rule. This one asks gpt-5.6-luna what a question actually resolves at, without showing it the price, and bets only when the answer and the market disagree by 20% or more. Most of the time they agree, and agreement is not a trade — so most of this page is opinions the module formed and did not act on.
No market has been priced by the model yet. Every new binary market gets an estimate; this fills as they arrive.
Every market the model priced, with the argument it gave — including the ones it argued itself out of. A multi-choice market is priced one answer at a time and each answer is its own row, named after the question. On this module the reasoning is the strategy, so a decline without it is the one decline nobody can check.
| market | price | model | gap | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing priced yet. | ||||
Nothing judged yet.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-26 11:59 | v55-twin | Who will be the Democratic nominee, and will they win the 2028 presidential election? :: Someone else is the D | YES 6 | open | model 0.16; edge +0.10; luna-medium price-blind says 0.16 vs answer 0.06 (edge +0.10 >= 0.1): Base rate: the out-party won 11 of 14 modern open-seat presidential elections (79%); current nomination markets leave roughly 28% for an unlisted Democrat, and I estimate that nominee has a 55% chance to win, with uncertainty beca |
| 08-26 11:56 | v55-twin | Which lab is behind the Ox Alpha model? :: Z.ai/GLM | YES 18 | settled +7 | model 0.91; edge +0.28; luna-medium price-blind says 0.91 vs answer 0.63 (edge +0.28 >= 0.1): Base rate for anonymous frontier-model attribution within four months is about 35%; despite missing resolution rules pulling toward 0.5, independent forensic evidence and a reported Aug. 26 Z.ai confirmation support YES, with Z.ai |
| 08-26 11:56 | v55-twin | Which lab is behind the Ox Alpha model? :: OAI/Anthropic/GDM/xAI | YES 6 | settled -6 | model 0.32; edge +0.23; luna-medium price-blind says 0.32 vs answer 0.09 (edge +0.23 >= 0.1): Base rate is 25% per lab across four options; with no resolution rules or scheduled reveal, ambiguity pulls toward 0.5, but OpenRouter still labels Ox Alpha anonymous and forensic evidence favors unlisted Z.ai/GLM, so the listed-l |
| 08-26 11:53 | v55-twin | Will the US threaten to attack Canada before 2027? | NO 66 | open +50 | model 0.04; edge -0.72; luna-medium price-blind says 0.04 vs market 0.76 (edge -0.72 >= 0.2): Historical base rate is 0 qualifying U.S. threats against Canada in roughly 80 postwar years (0%), while current rhetoric is economic rather than military; the rules are clear, the Nov. 3 midterms are the main scheduled catalyst, |
| 08-26 11:52 | v55-twin | 2026 NCAAF: Which team will win the Mountain West Conference Championship? :: New Mexico Lobos | YES 5 | open +5 | model 0.26; edge +0.15; luna-medium price-blind says 0.26 vs answer 0.11 (edge +0.15 >= 0.1): Base rate is 0 New Mexico titles in 13 Mountain West championship games; the rules lack a description but reasonably mean the official championship-game winner, with no material ambiguity; current sportsbook futures make New Mexic |
5 trades, 101 staked, realised +1, open +78 if held / +55 if sold.
In the traces on hand the model priced 0
answers across 0 markets and the module acted on
0 of them (0%). The journal holds
5 trades for 101 mana. 2 of them settled for +1.
An estimate the model declines to give is treated as no opinion and never
as a cheap one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 18:16Z.