Every other module reads a number off the venue and applies a rule. This one asks gpt-5.6-luna what a question actually resolves at, without showing it the price, and bets only when the answer and the market disagree by 20% or more. Most of the time they agree, and agreement is not a trade — so most of this page is opinions the module formed and did not act on.
No market has been priced by the model yet. Every new binary market gets an estimate; this fills as they arrive.
Every market the model priced, with the argument it gave — including the ones it argued itself out of. A multi-choice market is priced one answer at a time and each answer is its own row, named after the question. On this module the reasoning is the strategy, so a decline without it is the one decline nobody can check.
| market | price | model | gap | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing priced yet. | ||||
Nothing judged yet.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-26 11:04 | v53-twin | 2026 NCAAF: Which team will win the Mountain West Conference Championship? :: North Dakota State Bison | NO 43 | open -6 | model 0.00; edge -0.18; luna-medium price-blind says 0.00 vs answer 0.18 (edge -0.18 >= 0.1): NDSU is officially ineligible for the 2026 Mountain West Championship Game, making YES effectively impossible absent a rule change or erroneous resolution. |
| 08-26 11:04 | v53-twin | 2026 NCAAF: Which team will win the Mountain West Conference Championship? :: New Mexico Lobos | YES 5 | open +4 | model 0.24; edge +0.13; luna-medium price-blind says 0.24 vs answer 0.11 (edge +0.13 >= 0.1): Base rate: New Mexico has 0 Mountain West championship-game wins in 13 completed title games (2013–25); current sportsbook futures imply roughly 24% after normalization ([BetMGM](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/team/new-mexico-l |
| 08-26 11:02 | v53-twin | Which lab is behind the Ox Alpha model? :: Z.ai/GLM | YES 18 | settled +25 | model 0.88; edge +0.60; luna-medium price-blind says 0.88 vs answer 0.28 (edge +0.60 >= 0.1): Strong independent GLM fingerprints make Z.ai the clear favorite, but absent resolution rules and no official attribution leave meaningful ambiguity. |
| 08-26 11:02 | v53-twin | Which lab is behind the Ox Alpha model? :: Alibaba/Qwen | YES 4 | settled -4 | model 0.24; edge +0.13; luna-medium price-blind says 0.24 vs answer 0.11 (edge +0.13 >= 0.1): Alibaba/Qwen is possible but currently lacks direct evidence, while public fingerprinting and speculation lean toward Z.ai/GLM and the missing resolution rules make confirmation materially ambiguous. |
4 trades, 70 staked, realised +22, open +5 if held / -2 if sold.
In the traces on hand the model priced 0
answers across 0 markets and the module acted on
0 of them (0%). The journal holds
4 trades for 70 mana. 2 of them settled for +22.
An estimate the model declines to give is treated as no opinion and never
as a cheap one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 18:16Z.