Every other module reads a number off the venue and applies a rule. This one asks gpt-5.6-luna what a question actually resolves at, without showing it the price, and bets only when the answer and the market disagree by 20% or more. Most of the time they agree, and agreement is not a trade — so most of this page is opinions the module formed and did not act on.
No market has been priced by the model yet. Every new binary market gets an estimate; this fills as they arrive.
Every market the model priced, with the argument it gave — including the ones it argued itself out of. A multi-choice market is priced one answer at a time and each answer is its own row, named after the question. On this module the reasoning is the strategy, so a decline without it is the one decline nobody can check.
| market | price | model | gap | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing priced yet. | ||||
Nothing judged yet.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-26 10:33 | v50-twin | Will the US threaten to attack Canada before 2027? | NO 58 | open +14 | model 0.07; edge -0.43; luna-medium price-blind says 0.07 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.43 >= 0.2): Base rate is effectively 0% for qualifying U.S. military threats against Canada in the modern alliance era; despite escalating tariff rhetoric, the rules exclude tariffs absent military force, and the Sept. 8 countertariffs and No |
| 08-26 10:33 | v50-twin | Which lab is behind the Ox Alpha model? :: Z.ai/GLM | YES 14 | settled +36 | model 0.68; edge +0.51; luna-medium price-blind says 0.68 vs answer 0.17 (edge +0.51 >= 0.1): Base rate ~25% for anonymous model origins being officially confirmed within four months; OpenRouter's exact resolver page still lists the operator as anonymous, while independent tokenizer/API fingerprints strongly proxy Z.ai/GLM |
| 08-26 10:33 | v50-twin | Which lab is behind the Ox Alpha model? :: OAI/Anthropic/GDM/xAI | YES 6 | settled -6 | model 0.38; edge +0.21; luna-medium price-blind says 0.38 vs answer 0.17 (edge +0.21 >= 0.1): Base rate: with four listed labs the naive prior is 25%, while stealth-model attribution within four months is roughly 40%; rules are materially ambiguous because no resolver or valid-source clause is given, so I move toward 0.5; |
| 08-26 10:33 | v50-twin | Which lab is behind the Ox Alpha model? :: Nvidia | NO 24 | settled +4 | model 0.04; edge -0.13; luna-medium price-blind says 0.04 vs answer 0.17 (edge -0.13 >= 0.1): Base rate: about 0–5% (0 confirmed Nvidia attributions in the current official listing); OpenRouter identifies Ox Alpha only as an anonymous third-party model, while public evidence points more toward Z.ai/GLM, no scheduled identi |
4 trades, 102 staked, realised +34, open +20 if held / +14 if sold.
In the traces on hand the model priced 0
answers across 0 markets and the module acted on
0 of them (0%). The journal holds
4 trades for 102 mana. 3 of them settled for +34.
An estimate the model declines to give is treated as no opinion and never
as a cheap one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 18:16Z.