Every other module reads a number off the venue and applies a rule. This one asks gpt-5.6-luna what a question actually resolves at, without showing it the price, and bets only when the answer and the market disagree by 20% or more. Most of the time they agree, and agreement is not a trade — so most of this page is opinions the module formed and did not act on.
No market has been priced by the model yet. Every new binary market gets an estimate; this fills as they arrive.
Every market the model priced, with the argument it gave — including the ones it argued itself out of. A multi-choice market is priced one answer at a time and each answer is its own row, named after the question. On this module the reasoning is the strategy, so a decline without it is the one decline nobody can check.
| market | price | model | gap | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing priced yet. | ||||
Nothing judged yet.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-25 20:45 | v45 | Trump says or posts something deprecating about Dolly Parton within a week of her passing | NO 55 | settled +25 | model 0.08; edge -0.32; luna-medium price-blind says 0.08 vs market 0.40 (edge -0.32 >= 0.2): Trump’s initial response was strongly laudatory—calling Dolly Parton “one of the greatest Country singers” and ordering flags lowered in her honor—making a follow-up reversal unlikely. Although Trump has recently disparaged deceas |
| 08-25 20:34 | v45 | Waymo public rides in Munich by end of 2027? | YES 400 | open -41 | model 0.84; edge +0.29; luna-medium price-blind says 0.84 vs market 0.55 (edge +0.29 >= 0.2): Waymo announced on August 25, 2026 that it is already beginning Munich mapping and manual validation, and aims to open commercial fully autonomous ride-hailing to the public toward the end of 2027 ([official announcement](https:// |
| 08-25 20:33 | v45 | How many new people will I talk to by the end of the week :: 0-1 | YES 13 | settled -13 | model 0.75; edge +0.53; luna-medium price-blind says 0.75 vs answer 0.22 (edge +0.53 >= 0.1): With no schedule, travel, work, or social commitments provided, the strongest evidence is the base rate that most people encounter at least one unfamiliar person in a six-day period but not necessarily more than one. I therefore a |
| 08-25 20:33 | v45 | How many new people will I talk to by the end of the week :: 9-inf | YES 5 | settled -5 | model 0.45; edge +0.21; luna-medium price-blind says 0.45 vs answer 0.24 (edge +0.21 >= 0.1): There are six days remaining in the period, so reaching 9 requires meeting or speaking with roughly 1–2 previously unknown people per day. With no information about your schedule, social setting, or usual behavior, I put this slig |
| 08-25 20:33 | v45 | How many new people will I talk to by the end of the week :: 2-4 | YES 4 | settled +7 | model 0.50; edge +0.17; luna-medium price-blind says 0.50 vs answer 0.33 (edge +0.17 >= 0.1): No information is provided about your schedule, social setting, or typical number of new conversations, so the outcome is highly uncertain. With seven days remaining and a broad 2–4-person range, I assign an even probability that |
| 08-25 20:33 | v45 | How many new people will I talk to by the end of the week :: 5-8 | YES 3 | settled -3 | model 0.35; edge +0.13; luna-medium price-blind says 0.35 vs answer 0.22 (edge +0.13 >= 0.1): The six-day period leaves meaningful opportunity to meet 5–8 new people, but no schedule, workplace, travel, or social plans are provided. With no personal baseline or commitments indicating unusually high interaction, I put the p |
6 trades, 480 staked, realised +12, open +8 if held / -41 if sold.
In the traces on hand the model priced 0
answers across 0 markets and the module acted on
0 of them (0%). The journal holds
6 trades for 480 mana. 5 of them settled for +12.
An estimate the model declines to give is treated as no opinion and never
as a cheap one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 17:56Z.