Every other module reads a number off the venue and applies a rule. This one asks gpt-5.6-luna what a question actually resolves at, without showing it the price, and bets only when the answer and the market disagree by 20% or more. Most of the time they agree, and agreement is not a trade — so most of this page is opinions the module formed and did not act on.
No market has been priced by the model yet. Every new binary market gets an estimate; this fills as they arrive.
Every market the model priced, with the argument it gave — including the ones it argued itself out of. A multi-choice market is priced one answer at a time and each answer is its own row, named after the question. On this module the reasoning is the strategy, so a decline without it is the one decline nobody can check.
| market | price | model | gap | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing priced yet. | ||||
Nothing judged yet.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-25 20:31 | v44 | Waymo public rides in Munich by end of 2027? | YES 274 | open -32 | model 0.76; edge +0.21; luna-medium price-blind says 0.76 vs market 0.55 (edge +0.21 >= 0.2): Waymo officially announced on August 25, 2026 that it will begin Munich mapping and testing within weeks and aims to open commercial, fully autonomous ride-hailing to the public toward the end of 2027. Germany already has a Level- |
| 08-25 20:30 | v44 | How many new people will I talk to by the end of the week :: 0-1 | YES 10 | settled -10 | model 0.65; edge +0.43; luna-medium price-blind says 0.65 vs answer 0.22 (edge +0.43 >= 0.1): No personal schedule or contact information is available, so the estimate relies on a generic base rate. With nearly a week remaining, it is somewhat more likely than not that you will speak with at least one person you have not p |
| 08-25 20:30 | v44 | How many new people will I talk to by the end of the week :: 2-4 | YES 5 | settled +8 | model 0.55; edge +0.22; luna-medium price-blind says 0.55 vs answer 0.33 (edge +0.22 >= 0.1): With six days remaining, an ordinary week likely provides several opportunities to meet or speak with unfamiliar people, making 2–4 plausible. The lack of information about your schedule, social setting, or definition of “new peop |
| 08-25 20:30 | v44 | How many new people will I talk to by the end of the week :: 9-inf | YES 4 | settled -4 | model 0.40; edge +0.16; luna-medium price-blind says 0.40 vs answer 0.24 (edge +0.16 >= 0.1): There are seven calendar days remaining through the stated close, so reaching nine new conversations requires averaging only slightly more than one new person per day. No information about your schedule, social setting, or usual i |
| 08-25 20:30 | v44 | How many new people will I talk to by the end of the week :: 5-8 | YES 3 | settled -3 | model 0.35; edge +0.13; luna-medium price-blind says 0.35 vs answer 0.22 (edge +0.13 >= 0.1): There are about six days remaining, which gives a reasonable opportunity to meet 5–8 new people through ordinary work, errands, or social activity. However, no information is provided about your schedule, social plans, or usual in |
| 08-25 20:29 | v44 | MLB: Will the Texas Rangers sweep The Athletics OR will the 3-game series total 25 or more runs? | YES 44 | settled +21 | model 0.87; edge +0.26; luna-medium price-blind says 0.87 vs market 0.61 (edge +0.26 >= 0.2): MLB’s Aug. 25 standings show Texas at 66-66 with 532 runs scored and 569 allowed, while the Athletics are 51-81 with 574 scored and 764 allowed; combining those run environments with Globe Life Field’s modest hitter boost makes 25 |
6 trades, 340 staked, realised +12, open -6 if held / -32 if sold.
In the traces on hand the model priced 0
answers across 0 markets and the module acted on
0 of them (0%). The journal holds
6 trades for 340 mana. 5 of them settled for +12.
An estimate the model declines to give is treated as no opinion and never
as a cheap one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 17:56Z.