Someone drops a big YES bet and shoves a market upward. On average that is overconfidence rather than news, so this module buys the other side. It only counts as a whale above 50 mana and a 10% shove, it stakes 25 and holds at most 50 per market — so it turns almost everything down. This page is mostly a record of what it turned down.
No whale-sized bets seen yet. Every bet on the venue is checked; this fills when one is big enough to matter.
| market type | fades | staked | realised | open, if held | open, if sold | mana / fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| binary | 2 | 200 | +0.0 (0 settled) | +26.7 | +15.2 | +13.36 |
| multiple choice, independent | off in this version | |||||
| multiple choice, one winner | off in this version | |||||
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-25 12:41 | v38 | If elected, will Zohran Mamdani maintain a net positive approval rating by August 2028? | NO 100 | open +14 | fade: single 200-mana YES bet pushed 0.65->0.71; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-25 12:25 | v38 | Before the end of 2035, will transracialism become as common as transgenderism was in 2022? | NO 100 | open +1 | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.04->0.10; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
2 trades, 200 staked, realised +0, open +27 if held / +15 if sold.
No decisions traced by this version.
| utc | shove | move | whale | market | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing above whale size yet. | |||||
Of 0 bets judged, 0 cleared every rule
and were faded for 200 mana; 0 were beaten to it, the move
taken by someone faster before the last rule could pass. The dashed leg on
each shove is the part of the move that was gone before this module could
act. The book above has every fade this version owns, with its era and
result; the log is traces, which rotate.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is separate.
Built 2026-09-22 18:22Z.