Every other module reads a number off the venue and applies a rule. This one asks gpt-5.6-luna what a question actually resolves at, without showing it the price, and bets only when the answer and the market disagree by 20% or more. Most of the time they agree, and agreement is not a trade — so most of this page is opinions the module formed and did not act on.
No market has been priced by the model yet. Every new binary market gets an estimate; this fills as they arrive.
Every market the model priced, with the argument it gave — including the ones it argued itself out of. A multi-choice market is priced one answer at a time and each answer is its own row, named after the question. On this module the reasoning is the strategy, so a decline without it is the one decline nobody can check.
| market | price | model | gap | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing priced yet. | ||||
Nothing judged yet.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-25 08:59 | v35 | Which Games Will the Seattle Seahawks win in the 2026-2027 Season? :: vs. Arizona Cardinals | YES 13 | open +3 | model 0.89; edge +0.46; luna-medium price-blind says 0.89 vs answer 0.43 (edge +0.46 >= 0.3): Seattle plays Arizona twice in 2026, and the Seahawks return the core of a 14-3 Super Bowl-winning team while having swept the Cardinals in 2025, winning 23-20 in Arizona and 44-22 at home. Arizona has a first-year head coach, Mik |
| 08-25 08:59 | v35 | Which Games Will the Seattle Seahawks win in the 2026-2027 Season? :: vs. San Francisco 49ers | YES 9 | open +2 | model 0.78; edge +0.35; luna-medium price-blind says 0.78 vs answer 0.43 (edge +0.35 >= 0.3): Seattle hosts San Francisco on October 11 and visits Levi’s Stadium on November 29, giving them one meaningful home-field opportunity (official schedule: https://www.nfl.com/schedules/2026/by-team/seattle-seahawks). Seattle went 2 |
| 08-25 08:59 | v35 | Which Games Will the Seattle Seahawks win in the 2026-2027 Season? :: vs. New York Giants | YES 8 | open +3 | model 0.74; edge +0.31; luna-medium price-blind says 0.74 vs answer 0.43 (edge +0.31 >= 0.3): Seattle is at home against the Giants on December 13, after going 14-3 and winning Super Bowl LX, while New York went 4-13 in 2025. The Giants have upside with second-year QB Jaxson Dart and new coach John Harbaugh, so I discount |
| 08-25 08:59 | v35 | Which Games Will the Seattle Seahawks win in the 2026-2027 Season? :: vs. Los Angeles Rams | YES 8 | open +4 | model 0.74; edge +0.31; luna-medium price-blind says 0.74 vs answer 0.43 (edge +0.31 >= 0.3): Seattle won two of three meetings with Los Angeles in 2025, including both the December home game and the NFC Championship, while retaining Sam Darnold and its elite defense. The 2026 schedule gives Seattle a Christmas home game a |
| 08-25 08:57 | v35 | Which games will Colorado Buffaloes football win in the 2026 season? :: vs. Weber State | YES 15 | open +11 | model 0.93; edge +0.50; luna-medium price-blind says 0.93 vs answer 0.43 (edge +0.50 >= 0.3): Colorado hosts Weber State in Boulder, while Weber State went 4-8 overall and 2-6 in the Big Sky in 2025. Colorado was only 3-9 in 2025 and has a heavily revamped roster, so I allow for meaningful upset risk despite the FBS-versus |
| 08-25 08:50 | v35 | Will my company make a sale today? | NO 131 | settled +57 | model 0.04; edge -0.36; luna-medium price-blind says 0.04 vs market 0.40 (edge -0.36 >= 0.3): The only concrete evidence is the creator’s stated two-month run with zero sales, while the storefront is restricted behind account access and offers no public evidence of customer activity. Because resolution depends solely on an |
6 trades, 184 staked, realised +57, open +29 if held / +23 if sold.
In the traces on hand the model priced 0
answers across 0 markets and the module acted on
0 of them (0%). The journal holds
6 trades for 184 mana. 1 of them settled for +57.
An estimate the model declines to give is treated as no opinion and never
as a cheap one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 17:56Z.