Every other module reads a number off the venue and applies a rule. This one asks gpt-5.6-luna what a question actually resolves at, without showing it the price, and bets only when the answer and the market disagree by 20% or more. Most of the time they agree, and agreement is not a trade — so most of this page is opinions the module formed and did not act on.
No market has been priced by the model yet. Every new binary market gets an estimate; this fills as they arrive.
Every market the model priced, with the argument it gave — including the ones it argued itself out of. A multi-choice market is priced one answer at a time and each answer is its own row, named after the question. On this module the reasoning is the strategy, so a decline without it is the one decline nobody can check.
| market | price | model | gap | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing priced yet. | ||||
Nothing judged yet.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-24 13:15 | v16 | WordFinder Tips for Finding Hidden Words | YES 57 | cancelled | model 0.92; edge +0.49; luna-medium price-blind says 0.92 vs market 0.43 (edge +0.49 >= 0.3): WordFinder already publishes closely matching hidden-word and word-search guidance, including the same scanning, directions, uncommon-letter, prefix/suffix, and pattern-recognition advice. Its active blog and an indexed 2024 WordF |
| 08-24 12:43 | v16 | AI solves Millennium Prize Problem in September 2026? | NO 75 | settled -75 | model 0.01; edge -0.38; luna-medium price-blind says 0.01 vs market 0.39 (edge -0.38 >= 0.3): Clay’s official archive still lists all six remaining Millennium problems as unsolved: https://www.claymath.org/problem/unsolved/. Recent AI progress reached IMO-level performance, but an Anthropic system’s major Riemann-hypothesi |
2 trades, 132 staked, realised -75, open +0 if held / +0 if sold.
In the traces on hand the model priced 0
answers across 0 markets and the module acted on
0 of them (0%). The journal holds
2 trades for 132 mana. 1 of them settled for -75.
An estimate the model declines to give is treated as no opinion and never
as a cheap one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 18:05Z.