Every other module reads a number off the venue and applies a rule. This one asks gpt-5.6-luna what a question actually resolves at, without showing it the price, and bets only when the answer and the market disagree by 20% or more. Most of the time they agree, and agreement is not a trade — so most of this page is opinions the module formed and did not act on.
No market has been priced by the model yet. Every new binary market gets an estimate; this fills as they arrive.
Every market the model priced, with the argument it gave — including the ones it argued itself out of. A multi-choice market is priced one answer at a time and each answer is its own row, named after the question. On this module the reasoning is the strategy, so a decline without it is the one decline nobody can check.
| market | price | model | gap | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing priced yet. | ||||
Nothing judged yet.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-24 12:32 | v13 | AI solves Millennium Prize Problem in September 2026? | NO 75 | settled -75 | model 0.01; edge -0.38; luna-medium price-blind says 0.01 vs market 0.39 (edge -0.38 >= 0.3): Clay and Wikipedia still list six of the seven Millennium Prize Problems as unsolved as of August 2026. AI has recently solved smaller research-level problems, but frontier evaluations still show major failures on advanced mathema |
| 08-24 12:32 | v13 | Will the S&P 500 close above 7,700 on Friday? | YES 2 | settled +5 | model 0.57; edge +0.36; luna-medium price-blind says 0.57 vs market 0.20 (edge +0.37 >= 0.3): The S&P 500 closed at 7,674.37 on August 21, only 0.33% below the threshold, while recent daily moves of roughly ±0.2%–0.9% make that increase plausible over five sessions ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/09c079b43680c3e4564346892 |
2 trades, 77 staked, realised -69, open +0 if held / +0 if sold.
In the traces on hand the model priced 0
answers across 0 markets and the module acted on
0 of them (0%). The journal holds
2 trades for 77 mana. 2 of them settled for -69.
An estimate the model declines to give is treated as no opinion and never
as a cheap one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 18:05Z.