A numeric or date market is a histogram sharing one book: "how many" or "when". This module has one opinion about them, and it is about shape — the lowest bucket is systematically overpriced, because it is listed first and early traders anchor on it. It wants at least 3 buckets and a first bucket priced between 0.02 and 0.95. It is running in shadow in this version: every bet in the book is paper, judged like a real one but never sent.
No numeric market judged yet.
Nothing judged yet.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-29 10:56 | v11 | What will the national average gas price be on October 1st? :: Below $3.00 | YES 100 | open -45 | lowest numeric bucket cheap at open (+20.6/100 pooled n=647); open 0.14 |
| 08-28 16:03 | v11 | How many total goals will FC Barcelona score in their 2026/2027 UEFA Champions League matches? (penalties incl | YES 60 | open +0 | lowest numeric bucket cheap at open (+20.6/100 pooled n=647); open 0.12 |
| 08-25 11:39 | v11 | How many wins will the best team to miss the playoffs in the NFC have? :: 8 or less | YES 60 | open +1 | lowest numeric bucket cheap at open (+20.6/100 pooled n=647); open 0.25 |
3 trades, 220 staked, realised +0, open +40 if held / -44 if sold.
3 markets bet (3 journal rows) for
220 mana; realised +0 on 0
settled. Where a market's full bucket list was not recorded, the shape is
drawn from the first bucket alone and the rest is filler — said on
the card rather than implied by a chart that looks complete.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 18:16Z.