numeric‑tail

module 1.0 · v11 ← trader

A numeric or date market is a histogram sharing one book: "how many" or "when". This module has one opinion about them, and it is about shape — the lowest bucket is systematically overpriced, because it is listed first and early traders anchor on it. It wants at least 3 buckets and a first bucket priced between 0.02 and 0.95. It is running in shadow in this version: every bet in the book is paper, judged like a real one but never sent.

The shape it read

No numeric market judged yet.

Where candidates died · 0 markets judged

Nothing judged yet.

The book · v11

utcversionmarketbetresultwhy
08-29 10:56v11What will the national average gas price be on October 1st? :: Below $3.00YES 100open -45lowest numeric bucket cheap at open (+20.6/100 pooled n=647); open 0.14
08-28 16:03v11How many total goals will FC Barcelona score in their 2026/2027 UEFA Champions League matches? (penalties inclYES 60open +0lowest numeric bucket cheap at open (+20.6/100 pooled n=647); open 0.12
08-25 11:39v11How many wins will the best team to miss the playoffs in the NFC have? :: 8 or lessYES 60open +1lowest numeric bucket cheap at open (+20.6/100 pooled n=647); open 0.25

3 trades, 220 staked, realised +0, open +40 if held / -44 if sold.

3 markets bet (3 journal rows) for 220 mana; realised +0 on 0 settled. Where a market's full bucket list was not recorded, the shape is drawn from the first bucket alone and the rest is filler — said on the card rather than implied by a chart that looks complete.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above. Built 2026-09-22 18:16Z.