mc‑other

module 1.0 · v11 ← trader

When a market's answers must sum to one there is usually a catch-all — Other, none of these, Someone else — and it gets priced like a real candidate instead of the residue it is. Above 0.20 that is worth fading: this module buys NO on that single answer, aiming at about 0.12, and ignores every other answer in the market.

A bet on Other also covers any answer added later. So on a market where anyone can still add answers, Other is not the leftover this module fades — it is the chance the winner is not listed yet, and this module bets brand-new markets, when the list is shortest. Those markets are declined and counted below; the published edge never split on this and its sample is not in the repo, so the population is unmeasured rather than known-bad.

The slice it fades

What will be nominated for Game of the Year at the 2026 Indie Game Awards? :: Otherbet 9 mana · v11 · open -1
the named answers“other” at 0.20 → worth about 0.12
Which party will win the Rosemont—La Petite Patrie by-election? :: Otherbet 60 mana · v11 · open +10
the named answers“other” at 0.25 → worth about 0.12
Who will com in second in the Toronto mayoral election :: Otherbet 11 mana · v11 · open +3
the named answers“other” at 0.25 → worth about 0.12
who will win IIT (Isobowl Invitational Tournament) HS Division - add your team :: Otherbet 11 mana · v11 · settled +3
the named answers“other” at 0.25 → worth about 0.12

Where candidates died · 0 markets judged

Nothing judged yet.

The book · v11

utcversionmarketbetresultwhy
08-28 02:18v11What will be nominated for Game of the Year at the 2026 Indie Game Awards? :: OtherNO 9open -1sum-to-one Other answers priced >=0.20 resolve ~10-21%% historically; open 0.20 -> target 0.12
08-27 06:45v11Which party will win the Rosemont—La Petite Patrie by-election? :: OtherNO 60open +10sum-to-one Other answers priced >=0.20 resolve ~10-21%% historically; open 0.25 -> target 0.12
08-26 05:17v11Who will com in second in the Toronto mayoral election :: OtherNO 11open +3sum-to-one Other answers priced >=0.20 resolve ~10-21%% historically; open 0.25 -> target 0.12
08-24 19:58v11who will win IIT (Isobowl Invitational Tournament) HS Division - add your team :: OtherNO 11settled +3sum-to-one Other answers priced >=0.20 resolve ~10-21%% historically; open 0.25 -> target 0.12

4 trades, 90 staked, realised +3, open +13 if held / +12 if sold.

4 catch-alls faded for 90 mana; realised +3 on 1 settled. This module touches exactly one answer per market, so unlike its sibling mc-indep it cannot accidentally take a dozen correlated positions in one market.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above. Built 2026-09-22 18:22Z.