Every other module reads a number off the venue and applies a rule. This one asks gpt-5.6-luna what a question actually resolves at, without showing it the price, and bets only when the answer and the market disagree by 20% or more. Most of the time they agree, and agreement is not a trade — so most of this page is opinions the module formed and did not act on.
No market has been priced by the model yet. Every new binary market gets an estimate; this fills as they arrive.
Every market the model priced, with the argument it gave — including the ones it argued itself out of. A multi-choice market is priced one answer at a time and each answer is its own row, named after the question. On this module the reasoning is the strategy, so a decline without it is the one decline nobody can check.
| market | price | model | gap | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing priced yet. | ||||
Nothing judged yet.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-30 01:48 | v11 | Free Lottery (learning) | YES 400 | settled -3 | model 0.99; edge +0.30; luna-medium price-blind says 0.99 vs market 0.69 (edge +0.30 >= 0.3): The quotation is reproduced verbatim and attributed to Perls’s Gestalt Therapy Verbatim by Goodreads and a published motivational-interviewing text, while WorldCat confirms the book’s 1969 publication and authorship. The Goodreads |
| 08-29 20:39 | v11 | Will the Trump admin allow the Colorado River to reach an inoperable level to declare a State of Emergency b4 | NO 70 | open +23 | model 0.01; edge -0.54; luna-medium price-blind says 0.01 vs market 0.55 (edge -0.54 >= 0.3): USBR’s August 2026 most-probable and 90th-percentile-dry projections keep Lake Powell around 3,515–3,516 feet and Lake Mead above 1,034 feet through the deadline, while federal actions explicitly aim to protect Powell above 3,510 |
| 08-29 17:21 | v11 | bank statement pdf to tally prime | YES 58 | cancelled | model 0.93; edge +0.43; luna-medium price-blind says 0.93 vs market 0.50 (edge +0.43 >= 0.3): The dedicated page currently explicitly offers conversion of bank-statement PDFs into Tally Prime XML, including download and direct import instructions. The homepage and pricing also list Tally Prime output as an available featur |
| 08-29 17:10 | v11 | Person alive now becomes functionally immortal | NO 69 | open +15 | model 0.02; edge -0.48; luna-medium price-blind says 0.02 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.48 >= 0.3): Human trials have not yet demonstrated any drug or biologic that extends human lifespan, while leading analyses find radical life extension implausible this century without a major breakthrough in biological aging. Although cellul |
| 08-29 16:52 | v11 | [Will Brown] Will Transformative AI look like an abundance of specialized models, in August 2027? | YES 244 | open -84 | model 0.64; edge +0.34; luna-medium price-blind says 0.64 vs market 0.30 (edge +0.34 >= 0.3): Specialization is already becoming economically and technically practical: Stanford reports rapidly improving compact models, while Gartner forecasts organizations will use small task-specific models three times as often as genera |
| 08-29 14:48 | v11 | Trusted Coventry Fashion Retailer | NO 72 | cancelled | model 0.01; edge -0.45; luna-medium price-blind says 0.01 vs market 0.46 (edge -0.45 >= 0.3): The resolution text explicitly describes a Coventry commercial waste supplier and trade-bag collection service, not a fashion retailer. Coventry City Council likewise identifies commercial-waste providers such as Tom White Waste, |
| 08-29 09:08 | v11 | Will Eth price hit 2.5k dollars by 30 aug ? | YES 55 | settled +64 | model 1.00; edge +0.70; luna-medium price-blind says 1.00 vs market 0.30 (edge +0.70 >= 0.3): CoinGecko currently reports ETH’s 24-hour high at $2,520.20, already above the $2,500 resolution threshold. Its 7-day high is $2,558.47, while recent reporting shows strong ETH ETF inflows, so YES is effectively settled barring a |
| 08-29 01:38 | v11 | "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" passes "Avengers: Endgame"? (>$2.8B worldwide) | YES 28 | open -12 | model 0.56; edge +0.36; luna-medium price-blind says 0.56 vs market 0.20 (edge +0.36 >= 0.3): As of August 27, Box Office Mojo and The Numbers both report $2.235 billion worldwide, leaving about $562 million to reach the $2.7975 billion threshold. Its $360 million opening, strong $869 million domestic gross, continued four |
| 08-28 21:02 | v11 | Will The Odyssey ever surpass Spider-Man: Brand New Day in daily domestic box office gross during their initia | YES 400 | settled +363 | model 0.82; edge +0.39; luna-medium price-blind says 0.82 vs market 0.43 (edge +0.39 >= 0.3): Box Office Mojo actuals show The Odyssey narrowing the weekday gap on Aug. 24–26 ($2.61M/$3.03M/$2.31M versus Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s $3.50M/$4.95M/$3.15M), while its week-to-week declines were materially gentler; see https:// |
| 08-28 19:04 | v11 | Will @jim publish an article on his AI timelines by end-of-month? | YES 39 | settled +28 | model 0.82; edge +0.32; luna-medium price-blind says 0.82 vs market 0.50 (edge +0.32 >= 0.3): @jim has previously published a post after publicly sharing its draft, and the associated account explicitly identified itself as created by @jim. His extensive history of AI-timeline markets and article-related commitments makes |
| 08-27 08:23 | v11 | Will I get a positive pregnancy test in the next two weeks? | NO 53 | settled +35 | model 0.10; edge -0.40; luna-medium price-blind says 0.10 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.40 >= 0.3): A positive test within two weeks requires conception from intercourse during the roughly six-day fertile window, and tests are generally reliable by the first missed period. No information was provided about recent unprotected sex |
| 08-27 04:37 | v11 | 2026 Gävle Goat stand proud midnight 27th December Swedish time | YES 204 | open -32 | model 0.65; edge +0.33; luna-medium price-blind says 0.65 vs market 0.32 (edge +0.33 >= 0.3): The official history records intact outcomes in 2017–2020, 2022 and 2024, but bird damage in 2023 and a wind-caused collapse on 27 December 2025, while earlier decades show frequent burning and vandalism. The 2026 goat is expected |
| 08-27 03:03 | v11 | Will Xi Jinping meet Vladimir Putin before Christmas Eve 2028? | YES 7 | open +2 | model 0.96; edge +0.45; luna-medium price-blind says 0.96 vs market 0.51 (edge +0.45 >= 0.3): Xi and Putin met in person in 2023, three times in 2024, twice in 2025, and already once in May 2026, while both governments explicitly describe high-level exchanges as an ongoing priority. Their recurring bilateral visits and ove |
| 08-26 20:38 | v11 | Will my brother‘s friend be annoying to me tomorrow? | NO 104 | settled +775 | model 0.50; edge -0.45; luna-medium price-blind says 0.50 vs market 0.95 (edge -0.45 >= 0.3): No behavioral history, plans, or context is provided about your brother’s friend, so there is no evidence favoring either outcome. I therefore use a neutral estimate for the chance that their interaction tomorrow will feel annoyin |
| 08-26 18:09 | v11 | Will Fable 5.1 still trigger safeguards all the time? | NO 278 | open -1 | model 0.28; edge -0.52; luna-medium price-blind says 0.28 vs market 0.80 (edge -0.52 >= 0.3): Anthropic says the August biology-classifier update reduced biology-related fallbacks by about 85%, while its own documentation still acknowledges broad safeguards and high fallback rates for cybersecurity work. Although user repo |
| 08-26 17:23 | v11 | Mumbai Escort Service | NO 56 | cancelled | model 0.08; edge -0.42; luna-medium price-blind says 0.08 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.42 >= 0.3): The site could not be fetched, and exact-domain searches found no independent reviews, rankings, or credible evidence that it is regarded as Mumbai’s pinnacle. The only visible references were unrelated or promotional backlink pla |
| 08-26 17:21 | v11 | Will tobey maguire die in avengers doomsday? | NO 400 | open -3 | model 0.07; edge -0.43; luna-medium price-blind says 0.07 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.43 >= 0.3): Marvel’s announced cast and July 2026 official character art omit Tobey Maguire, while Andrew Garfield publicly said neither legacy Spider-Man would appear. The contrary evidence is limited to unverified scoopers and alleged leaks |
| 08-26 10:34 | v11 | Will the US threaten to attack Canada before 2027? | NO 67 | open +15 | model 0.03; edge -0.47; luna-medium price-blind says 0.03 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.47 >= 0.3): AP reported that Trump explicitly rejected military force for annexing Canada and instead threatened economic force, while current AP/Axios coverage describes escalating tariffs and annexation rhetoric but no threat of U.S. armed |
| 08-26 06:34 | v11 | Will the U.S. lower its 50% tariffs on Canadian goods before November 2026? | YES 31 | open -4 | model 0.99; edge +0.41; luna-medium price-blind says 0.99 vs market 0.59 (edge +0.40 >= 0.3): The White House proclamation signed August 18, 2026 formally suspended the additional duties in Proclamations 11046–11048 for three days and moved their effective date to August 22. This satisfies the resolution rule’s explicit in |
| 08-26 03:14 | v11 | How close is oViewybear to running T5 Kuudra? | YES 64 | settled +39 | model 0.96; edge +0.46; luna-medium price-blind says 0.96 vs market 0.50 (edge +0.46 >= 0.3): A public Manifold page shows oViewybear betting on completing 1,000 Infernal Kuudra runs this year, strongly indicating they already run or are immediately capable of running T5. No direct profile or gameplay record was found, so |
| 08-26 03:08 | v11 | Is this free mana? | YES 71 | settled +40 | model 0.99; edge +0.47; luna-medium price-blind says 0.99 vs market 0.52 (edge +0.47 >= 0.3): The stated resolution rule explicitly says “No,” so the question is set to resolve NO rather than YES. With no contrary evidence or context indicating that rule will be changed, I assign only a negligible chance to YES. |
| 08-26 00:07 | v11 | Will I be able to code something illegal to a video game by 6pm? | NO 37 | settled -37 | model 0.30; edge -0.45; luna-medium price-blind says 0.30 vs market 0.75 (edge -0.45 >= 0.3): There is no evidence about your current coding progress, skill level, or what illegal game-related code you intend to create. The short, same-day deadline and unspecified technical target make completion less likely than not. |
| 08-25 02:19 | v11 | Will Parsol Shield sunscreen be sold in the USA through Amazon to consumers by the end of 2026? | YES 66 | open +16 | model 0.97; edge +0.54; luna-medium price-blind says 0.97 vs market 0.43 (edge +0.54 >= 0.3): FDA records show Kenvue’s Neutrogena Ultra Sheer SPF 70 containing bemotrizinol (Parsol Shield) had a U.S. marketing start date of August 13, 2026. Reports on August 8 said bemotrizinol sunscreens were already available on Amazon, |
| 08-25 01:49 | v11 | Will Tesla's Cybercab be carrying public riders in at least 3 US metro areas by December 31, 2026? | YES 21 | open +40 | model 0.58; edge +0.33; luna-medium price-blind says 0.58 vs market 0.25 (edge +0.33 >= 0.3): Tesla has started Cybercab production, is staging large numbers of vehicles, and already operates public Robotaxi services in Austin, Dallas, and Houston, making a rapid Texas rollout plausible after the September 3 launch. Howeve |
| 08-24 19:45 | v11 | Will University of North Carolina researcher Bryan Roth win the Nobel Prize for his DREADDs research? | NO 56 | open +8 | model 0.08; edge -0.42; luna-medium price-blind says 0.08 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.42 >= 0.3): Roth’s lab clearly pioneered DREADDs, a widely adopted chemogenetic platform, and he has strong standing including National Academy of Medicine membership and major pharmacology honors (https://www.med.unc.edu/pharm/wp-content/upl |
| 08-24 19:11 | v11 | Will the Columbia postdoctoral union strike by the end of 2026? | YES 37 | open +6 | model 0.78; edge +0.35; luna-medium price-blind says 0.78 vs market 0.43 (edge +0.35 >= 0.3): CPW-UAW reports a 98% strike-authorization vote, more than 20 bargaining sessions with major disputes unresolved, and a publicly announced November 1 strike deadline if the October 24 bargaining session fails. The main counterevid |
| 08-24 16:58 | v11 | Will Captain Sauce upload a video this week? | YES 65 | settled +34 | model 0.96; edge +0.41; luna-medium price-blind says 0.96 vs market 0.55 (edge +0.41 >= 0.3): His recent long-form upload pattern was roughly twice weekly, and community posts report a Wednesday/Saturday schedule continuing through summer. A recent post also said his latest video took 8 hours to record and 18 hours to edit |
| 08-24 15:23 | v11 | Will David Portnoy give a second pizza a 10.0 rating by the end of 2029? | NO 41 | open +0 | model 0.18; edge -0.37; luna-medium price-blind says 0.18 vs market 0.55 (edge -0.37 >= 0.3): Monte’s received Portnoy’s only 10.0 in August 2015, and contemporary reporting says this remained the sole perfect score after more than 1,000 reviews. His official 2026 review page shows frequent reviewing but recent highs aroun |
| 08-24 14:36 | v11 | Swiss federal Neutrality Initiative passes | NO 400 | open +115 | model 0.06; edge -0.37; luna-medium price-blind says 0.06 vs market 0.43 (edge -0.37 >= 0.3): Recent August polls show only 41–42% support versus 50–54% opposition, while the Federal Council, Parliament, and nearly all major parties oppose the initiative. YouGov’s canton-level model found a clear Yes majority only in Ticin |
| 08-24 14:28 | v11 | Will Canada retaliate and impose tariffs against the US by Sept 15 | YES 61 | settled +50 | model 0.94; edge +0.53; luna-medium price-blind says 0.94 vs market 0.41 (edge +0.53 >= 0.3): Prime Minister Carney and the official PMO readout explicitly state that dollar-for-dollar counter-tariffs will come into force on September 8, 2026, with AP independently reporting the same schedule and targeted sectors (https:// |
| 08-24 11:38 | v11 | AI solves Millennium Prize Problem in September 2026? | NO 73 | settled -73 | model 0.01; edge -0.42; luna-medium price-blind says 0.01 vs market 0.43 (edge -0.42 >= 0.3): Wikipedia and Clay list six Millennium Prize Problems as still unsolved as of 2026. AI has autonomously solved some smaller open problems, but current research reports rare success on research-level mathematics and no evidence of |
| 08-24 10:08 | v11 | How Much Liquid Can You Bring on a Plane? | YES 70 | cancelled | model 0.99; edge +0.56; luna-medium price-blind says 0.99 vs market 0.43 (edge +0.56 >= 0.3): TSA’s current guidance confirms the 3-1-1 rule: containers must generally be 3.4 ounces/100 mL or less, fit in one quart-size clear resealable bag, and passengers generally get one bag. The described treatment of toiletries, parti |
| 08-24 06:42 | v11 | Will China buy the H200 from NVIDIA | YES 33 | open +4 | model 0.68; edge +0.39; luna-medium price-blind says 0.68 vs market 0.29 (edge +0.39 >= 0.3): ByteDance and Tencent have each already received roughly 10,000 H200s, while Reuters/FT report that other Chinese technology firms could soon secure similar shipments and Nvidia has purchase orders from multiple Chinese customers. |
| 08-24 03:50 | v11 | Will my company make a sale today? | NO 52 | settled +41 | model 0.10; edge -0.35; luna-medium price-blind says 0.10 vs market 0.45 (edge -0.35 >= 0.3): After approximately two months with no sales, the empirical base rate for a first sale on any particular day appears low. The creator’s expectation of a sale today modestly raises the estimate, but the account-gated catalog, hidde |
| 08-24 03:14 | v11 | Will the San Francisco Giants beat the Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 or more runs on August 27, 2026? (8/27/26) | NO 40 | cancelled | model 0.17; edge -0.31; luna-medium price-blind says 0.17 vs market 0.48 (edge -0.31 >= 0.3): MLB’s official schedule confirms the game at Oracle Park, while current records are Arizona 69-62 versus San Francisco 52-78; Arizona’s lineup has several productive hitters, whereas the Giants’ offense is averaging only about 4.0 |
| 08-23 23:45 | v11 | Will the purported construction of a complex structure on S^6 by Levent Alpöge turn out to be correct? | NO 71 | open -31 | model 0.01; edge -0.49; luna-medium price-blind says 0.01 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.49 >= 0.3): Alpöge’s current website lists no S^6 paper, while the established literature still describes the problem as open and records repeated failed claims ([Alpöge’s site](https://alpo.ge/), [history of the Hopf problem](https://arxiv.o |
| 08-23 22:53 | v11 | Will LegalEagle become the U.S. Attorney General before 2030? | NO 400 | open +200 | model 0.01; edge -0.45; luna-medium price-blind says 0.01 vs market 0.46 (edge -0.45 >= 0.3): Stone’s official biography presents him as a civil-litigation trial lawyer, Georgetown adjunct professor, and legal-media educator, with no executive-branch, prosecutorial, elected, or senior political role ([Stone Law DC](https:/ |
| 08-23 22:47 | v11 | Was the Hawk fire in Reno Nevada started intentionally? | NO 44 | open +4 | model 0.15; edge -0.35; luna-medium price-blind says 0.15 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.35 >= 0.3): Authorities confirmed the Hawk Fire was human-caused, but said they had no further details and that its origin remained under investigation. The available reporting contains no indication of arson, a suspect, or other evidence of |
| 08-23 20:08 | v11 | Will the FRONTIER AI Act pass by July 2027? | NO 45 | open +14 | model 0.13; edge -0.30; luna-medium price-blind says 0.13 vs market 0.43 (edge -0.30 >= 0.3): As of August 23, 2026, H.R. 9925 has bipartisan original sponsorship but remains merely introduced and referred to two House committees, with no recorded committee action ([GovInfo](https://www.govinfo.gov/app/details/BILLS-119hr9 |
39 trades, 4,384 staked, realised +1355, open +685 if held / +294 if sold.
In the traces on hand the model priced 0
answers across 0 markets and the module acted on
0 of them (0%). The journal holds
39 trades for 4,384 mana. 13 of them settled for +1355.
An estimate the model declines to give is treated as no opinion and never
as a cheap one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 18:16Z.