close‑collector

module 1.0 · v11 ← trader

A market that is still a heavy favourite with hours left has very little time left to be wrong. This module works the last 24 hours of a market's life and takes the side the clock favours: buy YES at 0.90–0.97, buy NO at 0.03–0.15. Nothing in the middle, and nothing whose price is just an untouched ante.

The closing window

0.90–0.970.03–0.1524h12hcloseWith Khan voted out, will Keir Starmer be the next ICC chief prosecutor? 0.05 with 1.9h left (traded)🇺🇸🇨🇳🇮🇷 Will the U.S. sanction a Chinese entity over ties to Iran by August 24, 2026? 0.09 with 23.3h left (traded)Will my company make its first sale today? 0.06 with 1.4h left (traded)Will my company make a sale today? 0.04 with 12.7h left (traded)📈 Will Nvidia report Q2 FY2027 revenue above $92 billion? 0.90 with 20.6h left (traded)Can I fold an intermediate origami dragon by 6pm 0.93 with 17.3h left (traded)Will Bitcoin be higher 7 days from now? 0.95 with 20.2h left (traded)Will my company make a sale today? 0.04 with 14.6h left (traded)Outcome of India vs Sri Lanka Test series (Aug 2026) 0.91 with 23.8h left (traded)NVDA earnings: will the stock open up on Aug 27? 0.90 with 19.9h left (traded)On 27th August, will the in/out price for Kimi K3 on Openrouter be below $2 / $10 per 1M tokens? 0.09 with 23.8h left (traded)Will Jason Arday's 'Great and Unfortunate Things' be available for purchase in the UK on or before August 27, 2026? 0.92 with 23.8h left (traded)Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $86.50 on August 27, 2026? 0.13 with 17.5h left (traded)Will bitcoin be higher 7 days from now? 0.90 with 14.2h left (traded)Will my wife get a job offer? 0.95 with 23.8h left (traded)Will my brother‘s friend be annoying to me tomorrow? 0.13 with 5.0h left (traded)Michael Jordan cameo in The Coyote vs. ACME movie? 0.06 with 23.5h left (traded)Будет ли дождь завтра в Узбекистане? 0.03 with 23.5h left (traded)Will the S&P 500 close above 7,700 on Friday? 0.94 with 8.6h left (traded)Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to Zimbabwe export ban exceed 5 kilotonnes on August 29, 2026? 0.92 with 23.8h left (traded)Will the U3O8 spot price exceed $60 per pound on August 29, 2026? 0.94 with 23.8h left (traded)Will the U3O8 spot price exceed $50 per pound on August 29, 2026? 0.94 with 23.8h left (traded)Will the U3O8 spot price exceed $40 per pound on August 29, 2026? 0.94 with 23.8h left (traded)Leader of the GC after stage 9 to be the winner of La Vuelta a España 0.93 with 23.5h left (traded)Will I miss my connecting flight due to EES? 0.14 with 16.6h left (traded)Will Jim remain in Masters after Season 40? 0.03 with 24.0h left (traded)Will rg26 remain in Masters after Season 40? 0.03 with 24.0h left (traded)Will Joe and Seth remain in Masters after Season 40? 0.08 with 24.0h left (traded)Will Simon remain in Masters after Season 40? 0.96 with 24.0h left (traded)Will Zanda Zhu remain in Masters after Season 40? 0.94 with 24.0h left (traded)Will JasonMendoza2008 remain in Masters after Season 40? 0.93 with 24.0h left (traded)Will Alex remain in Masters after Season 40? 0.06 with 24.0h left (traded)Will Zico remain in Masters after Season 40? 0.03 with 24.0h left (traded)Will draaglom remain in Masters after Season 40? 0.06 with 24.0h left (traded)Will DP remain in Masters after Season 40? 0.06 with 24.0h left (traded)Will Tripping remain in Masters after Season 40? 0.11 with 24.0h left (traded)Will Miguel Sánchez remain in Masters after Season 40? 0.04 with 24.0h left (traded)Will DAC remain in Masters after Season 40? 0.03 with 24.0h left (traded)Will John-George Salter remain in Masters after Season 40? 0.03 with 24.0h left (traded)Will Mary Smith remain in Masters after Season 40? 0.06 with 24.0h left (traded)Will Daniel Tello remain in Masters after Season 40? 0.10 with 24.0h left (traded)Will Toward a theory of everything remain in Masters after Season 40? 0.07 with 24.0h left (traded)Will chris (strutheo) remain in Masters after Season 40? 0.95 with 24.0h left (traded)Will Chad remain in Masters after Season 40? 0.94 with 24.0h left (traded)US regain control over Bagram air base in Afghanistan by August 2026? 0.09 with 24.0h left (traded)Will Mohan Bhagwat be taken into custody by a U.S. government authority in New York City before August 31, 2026? 0.05 with 24.0h left (traded)🚢 Will Iran and Oman reach an agreement to reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026? 0.08 with 24.0h left (traded)🚢 Will Iran and Oman reach an agreement to reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026? 0.10 with 24.0h left (traded)Will Anthropic release a system card of a model at a new frontier of intellegence by August 31st? 0.13 with 21.8h left (traded)Will Argentina’s country risk fall below 500bps before September 2026? 0.06 with 24.0h left (traded)Will Sm metal (Western) spot price exceed 200 USD/kg on August 31, 2026? 0.06 with 24.0h left (traded)Will Sm metal (Western) spot price exceed 100 USD/kg on August 31, 2026? 0.05 with 24.0h left (traded)

Time runs toward the close on the right-hand end, because that is the direction opportunity moves here: a market enters this module's world by running out of time, not by changing price. Dots outside the two lanes were seen and left alone. 52 trades from the book at their price and hours-to-close when placed, ringed.

Where candidates died · 0 markets judged

No decisions traced by this version.

The book · v11

utcversionmarketbetresultwhy
08-30 04:03v11Will Sm metal (Western) spot price exceed 200 USD/kg on August 31, 2026?NO 25open +0longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-30 04:03v11Will Sm metal (Western) spot price exceed 100 USD/kg on August 31, 2026?NO 25open +0longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-30 03:03v11Will Argentina’s country risk fall below 500bps before September 2026?NO 25settled +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-30 02:03v11Will Anthropic release a system card of a model at a new frontier of intellegence by August 31st?NO 25settled +4longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-30 00:02v11US regain control over Bagram air base in Afghanistan by August 2026?NO 25settled +2longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-30 00:02v11Will Mohan Bhagwat be taken into custody by a U.S. government authority in New York City before August 31, 202NO 25settled +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-30 00:02v11🚢 Will Iran and Oman reach an agreement to reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?NO 25settled +2longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-30 00:02v11🚢 Will Iran and Oman reach an agreement to reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?NO 25settled +2longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-29 23:02v11Will Chad remain in Masters after Season 40?YES 25settled +2favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-29 23:02v11Will John-George Salter remain in Masters after Season 40?NO 25settled +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-29 23:02v11Will Mary Smith remain in Masters after Season 40?NO 25settled +2longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-29 23:02v11Will Daniel Tello remain in Masters after Season 40?NO 25settled +3longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-29 23:02v11Will Toward a theory of everything remain in Masters after Season 40?NO 25settled +2longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-29 23:02v11Will chris (strutheo) remain in Masters after Season 40?YES 25settled +1favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-29 23:02v11Will Zico remain in Masters after Season 40?NO 25settled +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-29 23:02v11Will draaglom remain in Masters after Season 40?NO 25settled +2longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-29 23:02v11Will DP remain in Masters after Season 40?NO 25settled +2longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-29 23:02v11Will Tripping remain in Masters after Season 40?NO 25settled +3longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-29 23:02v11Will Miguel Sánchez remain in Masters after Season 40?NO 25settled +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-29 23:02v11Will DAC remain in Masters after Season 40?NO 25settled +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-29 23:02v11Will Joe and Seth remain in Masters after Season 40?NO 25settled +2longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-29 23:02v11Will Simon remain in Masters after Season 40?YES 25settled +1favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-29 23:02v11Will Zanda Zhu remain in Masters after Season 40?YES 25settled +1favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-29 23:02v11Will JasonMendoza2008 remain in Masters after Season 40?YES 25settled +2favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-29 23:02v11Will Alex remain in Masters after Season 40?NO 25settled +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-29 23:02v11Will Jim remain in Masters after Season 40?NO 25settled +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-29 23:02v11Will rg26 remain in Masters after Season 40?NO 25settled +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-29 15:31v11Will I miss my connecting flight due to EES?NO 25settled +4longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-29 00:28v11Leader of the GC after stage 9 to be the winner of La Vuelta a EspañaYES 25settled +2favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-28 21:27v11Will the U3O8 spot price exceed $60 per pound on August 29, 2026?YES 25open +1favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-28 21:27v11Will the U3O8 spot price exceed $50 per pound on August 29, 2026?YES 25open +1favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-28 21:27v11Will the U3O8 spot price exceed $40 per pound on August 29, 2026?YES 25open +1favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-28 18:27v11Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to Zimbabwe export ban exceed 5 kilotonnes on August 29, 2026?YES 25open +0favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-28 15:26v11Will the S&P 500 close above 7,700 on Friday?YES 25settled +1favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-28 00:24v11Будет ли дождь завтра в Узбекистане?NO 25open +0longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-27 18:52v11Michael Jordan cameo in The Coyote vs. ACME movie?NO 25settled +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-27 18:52v11Will my brother‘s friend be annoying to me tomorrow?NO 16settled +116longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-27 17:22v11Will my wife get a job offer?YES 25settled -25favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-27 16:22v11Will bitcoin be higher 7 days from now?YES 25settled +3favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-27 10:21v11Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $86.50 on August 27, 2026?NO 25settled +7longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-27 00:19v11NVDA earnings: will the stock open up on Aug 27?YES 25settled +3favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-27 00:19v11On 27th August, will the in/out price for Kimi K3 on Openrouter be below $2 / $10 per 1M tokens?NO 25settled +2longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-27 00:19v11Will Jason Arday's 'Great and Unfortunate Things' be available for purchase in the UK on or before August 27, YES 25settled +2favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-26 18:48v11Outcome of India vs Sri Lanka Test series (Aug 2026)YES 25settled -4favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-26 13:18v11Will my company make a sale today?NO 25settled +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-26 05:16v11Will Bitcoin be higher 7 days from now?YES 25settled +1favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-26 00:46v11Can I fold an intermediate origami dragon by 6pmYES 25settled +2favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-25 22:45v11📈 Will Nvidia report Q2 FY2027 revenue above $92 billion?YES 25settled +3favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-25 15:15v11Will my company make a sale today?NO 25settled +28longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-24 02:38v11Will my company make its first sale today?NO 25settled +18longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-23 21:37v11🇺🇸🇨🇳🇮🇷 Will the U.S. sanction a Chinese entity over ties to Iran by August 24, 2026?NO 25settled -25longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-23 20:07v11With Khan voted out, will Keir Starmer be the next ICC chief prosecutor?NO 25open -0longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%

52 trades, 1,290 staked, realised +180, open +3 if held / +3 if sold.

52 collected for 1,290 mana, of which 19 on the favourite side. The band edges matter more than the stake: this module is buying near-certainty, so a single wrong one costs several right ones.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is separate. Built 2026-09-22 18:22Z.