The same question often trades on Kalshi or Polymarket with real money behind it. When the Manifold mirror drifts more than 10% from that price, the difference is either information this venue has not absorbed yet or a pairing that was wrong to begin with. A jump is the twin moving and the mirror not yet following; a standing gap is the two venues simply disagreeing. The twin's own book has to be real to count: spread under 5%, at least 100 traded in a day. Jumps trade live in this version; standing gaps are shadow only, logged as what it would have done and moving no mana.
No verified twin has moved far enough yet.
No decisions traced by this version.
No trades in this book.
0 trades, 0 staked, realised +0, open +0 if held / +0 if sold.
0 jumps for 0 mana; 0 standing gaps for 0 mana. The other
venue's price is only worth following when its own book is real: a wide
spread or a quiet day makes the number decoration, which is why those are
separate rejections rather than one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is separate.
Built 2026-09-22 18:05Z.